Systems and Futures

When systems thinking and systems methods are applied in practice it is usually with an intention to change something framed narrowly as a specific mechanism or technology (like a manufacturing system) or widely as the transformation of a social system (like adapting to climate change). The implication of this use of systems thinking implies some kind of desired change over time although methods of futures studies are rarely applied. Conversely, futures thinking which focuses on conjectures about a state of affairs at some point in the future for which there cannot be directly measurable evidence rarely use systems methods. However, the increasing complexity of wicked problems is increasingly being addressed by combining aspects of both methods. Hybrid combinations of the two approaches are being applied and the field of anticipatory systems theory is being developed. This raises the issue of systems thinking and futures thinking having different foundations in relation to evidence. The empirical and the speculative have to be combined. Second-order anticipatory system theory based on second-order cybernetics and three horizons foresight are promising areas under development. In strategic decision making, policy development and in complex design systems and futures strongly integrate to develop a shared transdisciplinary understanding.