Balancing the peace-trade equation in Africa through the African Continental Free Trade Area: Possibilities, Probabilities and Evidence

Abstract

Whilst the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is envisaged to create a singleAfrican continental market with a population of about 1.3 billion people and a combined Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of approximately US$ 3.4 trillion that will deepen economic integration, promote industrialization and sustainable socio-economic development; it is the presence and persistence of various forms of violent conflicts, unconstitutional change of governments and political instability in Africa which poses a serious threat to the achievement of AfCFTA goals and objectives. Currently, Africa is confronted with over thirty-five (35) armed conflicts in several countries, mostly in West Africa, Central Africa and the Horn of Africa sub-regions. Whereas there has been a general belief and hope thatthe AfCFTA may balance off the trade-peace equation in Africa by enhancing trade which may in turn promote peace and political stability; there has not been much critical interrogation of the evidence, trends and patterns to substantiate such assumptions. Using evidence, trends and patterns of conflict in Africa, this paper examines the possibilities and probabilities of attaining trade-induced peace on the continent through the implementation of the AfCFTA. Methodologically, the paper makes use of the International Futures (IFs) Model - a comprehensive integrated modelling system used as a forecasting tool - to establish the prospects, possibilities, and probabilities of a trade-peace equation in Africa within the next seven years (2023-2030), focusing on the variables of state risk failure, governance effectiveness, government security and poverty alleviation. Secondary data sources are also used to augment the analysis whilst the Trade-Peace Nexus concept provides conceptual frames of analysis. The research findings provide fresh ideas and perspectives on how several peace initiatives can be mainstreamed for the successful the implementation of the AfCFTA and striking a balance of the trade-peace equation within the framework of the AfCFTA.