The impact of the war on maintenance of long-term therapies in Ukraine

Background Armed conflict can indirectly affect population health through detrimental impacts on political and social institutions and destruction of infrastructure. This study aimed to quantify indirect mortality impacts of armed conflict in civilian populations globally and explore differential effects by armed conflict characteristics and population groups. Methods We included 193 countries between 1990 and 2017 and constructed fixed effects panel regression models using data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program and Global Burden of Disease study. Mortality rates were corrected to exclude battle-related deaths. We assessed separately four different armed conflict variables (capturing binary, continuous, categorical, and quintile exposures) and ran models by cause-specific mortality stratified by age groups and sex. Post-estimation analyses calculated the number of civilian deaths. Results We identified 1118 unique armed conflicts. Armed conflict was associated with increases in civilian mortality—driven by conflicts categorised as wars. Wars were associated with an increase in age-standardised all-cause mortality of 81.5 per 100,000 population (β 81.5, 95% CI 14.3–148.8) in adjusted models contributing 29.4 million civilian deaths (95% CI 22.1–36.6) globally over the study period. Mortality rates from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (β 51.3, 95% CI 2.6–99.9); non-communicable diseases (β 22.7, 95% CI 0.2–45.2); and injuries (β 7.6, 95% CI 3.4–11.7) associated with war increased, contributing 21.0 million (95% CI 16.3–25.6), 6.0 million (95% CI 4.1–8.0), and 2.4 million deaths (95% CI 1.7–3.1) respectively. War-associated increases in all-cause and cause-specific mortality were found across all age groups and both genders, but children aged 0–5 years had the largest relative increases in mortality. Conclusions Armed conflict, particularly war, is associated with a substantial indirect mortality impact among civilians globally with children most severely burdened. Show more

On February 24, 2022, a war began within the Ukrainian borders. At least 3.0 million Ukrainian inhabitants have already fled the country. Critical infrastructure, including hospitals, has been damaged. Children with cancer were urgently transported to foreign countries, in an effort to minimize interruption of their life-saving treatments. Most adults did not have that option. War breeds cancer—delaying diagnosis, preventing treatment, and increasing risk. We project that a modest delay in care of only 4 months for five prevalent types of cancer will lead to an excess of over 3,600 cancer deaths in the subsequent years. It is critical that we establish plans to mitigate that risk as soon as possible. Show more

COVID-19 was declared a global pandemic on March 11 2020, with dramatic consequences on the way we live. The rigours of lockdown and physical distancing posed major challenges to society, and specifically to healthcare systems. In the initial focus on acute COVID-19 treatment, management of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) was severely scaled down, and patients suffering from NCDs were given low priority. Appointments were postponed or cancelled due to re-allocation of healthcare personnel to tasks related to managing COVID-19. Healthcare providers, coping with inadequate supplies of personal protective equipment, minimised physical contact with patients to avoid contagion. Patients’ motivation to seek care diminished, as medical centres were perceived as potential sources of infection. The result was a major global disruption in NCD management just at a time when long-term conditions were emerging as major risk factors for poor outcomes from COVID-19 [1]. A World Health Organization (WHO) survey, conducted across 155 countries during the first wave of COVID-19 highlighted the major disruption to NCD services [2]. For example, half the countries reported that hypertension services were reduced despite two thirds of those dying from COVID-19 in hospitals having hypertension. Management of type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular and chronic respiratory disease were similarly affected, along with multimorbidity and mental health [3]. Thus, COVID-19 has proved to be a syndemic, with repercussions that far exceed the direct consequences of the infection itself [4]. Maintaining management of NCDs is crucial for preserving both short- and long-term health and economic outcomes; morbidity and premature mortality from NCDs have been described as a ‘twin epidemic’ alongside COVID-19 [5]. A prerequisite for effective NCD management is continuity of medication [6]. Discontinuation of some treatments may have catastrophic consequences (e.g., non-persistence with chemotherapy may lead to cancer progression) [7]. Moreover, maintaining treatment may even be protective: statin use during the month prior to admission for COVID-19 was associated with a lower risk of severe infection [8]. Assuring continuous access to medication relies on healthcare systems adapting to the COVID-19 context, and it is likely that different countries will take different approaches to meet the challenge. In December 2020, the EU-funded European Network to Advance Best practices & technoLogy on medication adherencE (ENABLE) COST Action conducted a rapid assessment survey across 39 European countries to obtain a ‘snapshot’ of NCD care, and specifically approaches to maintaining continuous access to medication during the second COVID-19 wave. Countries covered included all 27 EU countries, as well as 12 European countries not belonging to EU (i.e., Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Iceland, Israel, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Norway, Serbia, Switzerland, Turkey and the United Kingdom). The web-based cross-sectional survey was sent to all ENABLE collaborators (N = 92, as most countries have 2–3 representatives). The survey was developed based upon key elements of the medication management cycle of NCDs (i.e., patient and healthcare system regulations, means of communication between the patient and prescriber, prescriber, prescription, community pharmacy regulations, medication and medication taking), and validated by six independent external experts. Respondents were instructed to describe the national context, rather than regional or local scenarios; to provide responses as of December 2020; and to reach consensus on each item with fellow country-members. They could contact additional local experts if required. Where multiple collaborators from a country completed the questionnaire independently, the responses were compared. In the few instances where answers differed, respondents were contacted to resolve the inconsistencies between themselves prior to data analysis. Survey results indicated significant disruption of NCD services especially in countries with a greater number of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 inhabitants (p 3 months) were possible in 26 (67%) of countries, though restricting duration may have been a strategy to avoid exacerbating a shortage of medicines that was a challenge for some drugs. However, only 21 (54%) countries applied measures specifically to address potential shortages of medicines, and 33 (85%) of countries allowed substitution of unavailable medicines. Despite the limitations of being survey-based research, with a focus at the national level (e.g., not capturing local differences between urban vs. rural areas, or deprived vs. affluent settings), the pan-European coverage of this study offers a comprehensive ‘snapshot’ of how European countries responded to the challenge of assuring continuity of pharmacological products for NCDs during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Seven months after the WHO survey [2], in which countries ‘asked for urgent guidance on how to develop national NCDs tool kits for use in emergencies’, our findings suggest that there remain gaps in services that could be addressed. According to our results, European countries adopted various measures to secure continuity of pharmacological treatment for NCDs during the pandemic. In particular eHealth solutions emerged as pivotal in the provision of healthcare services. However, a systematic approach to maintaining access to on-going medication under ‘stress-test’ conditions of a global pandemic has not yet been adopted by most European countries. Outside Europe, various approaches have been proposed, ranging from dispensing longer than usual drug refills, to innovative digital solutions, such as the use of artificial intelligence [9, 10]. COVID-19 has jeopardised NCD care, and our survey suggests there are major disparities in the way European countries are dealing with this challenge. In many countries, there is room for improvements and countries may learn from each other's approaches. Notably, depending on country-specific resources, workflows and infrastructure, several practical and low-cost solutions may be worthy of consideration to optimise NCD care, including: (1) increasing the range of remote options for ordering repeat prescriptions (e.g., online, via mobile app etc.), (2) expanding the scope of professionals authorised to prescribe (or issue) repeat prescriptions, (3) increasing the duration of prescriptions (though this needs to be balanced with managing shortages), (4) enabling community pharmacies to dispense medications normally restricted to hospitals, (5) allowing substitution of unavailable drugs, (6) creating digital/eHealth systems supporting patients in long-term treatment, encouraging patient empowerment and patient-centred care and (7) providing publicly available guidance on strategies for maintaining treatment during pandemic lockdown. Remote solutions do not solve all the challenges of maintaining access to NCD treatments. Some long-term therapies require face-to-face contacts with healthcare professionals (e.g., oral anticoagulants need periodic lab tests), so safe arrangements will be needed. Nevertheless, many of the suggested solutions have been already proved workable in some contexts during the pandemic [9, 10]. With second – or third – waves of COVID-19 currently challenging many European countries, strategic introduction of these solutions may help sustain effective NCD management. In the short-term, this will optimise the health of people at risk of poor outcomes from COVID-19. In the long-term, maintaining access to, and enabling adherence to chronic medication will limit the negative consequences of a disruption in NCD care. The WHO describes the interplay of the COVID-19 and NCD pandemics as ‘deadly’ [2] and calls for inclusion of NCDs in national COVID-19 plans. Our survey has identified marked disparities in ensuring on-going access to NCD medication; it also offers some practical solutions that could help reduce these inequities as Europe continues to manage the challenges of a global pandemic. Author Contributions All authors conceived and designed the paper, synthesised the initial information into a manuscript, helped to refine the manuscript, and contributed to revising the manuscript. Declaration of Interests Dr. Tsiligianni reports personal fees from Honoraria for educational activities, speaking engagements, advisory boards from Boehringer Ingelheim, Astra Zeneca, GSK, Novartis and grants from GSK Hellas and Elpen, outside the submitted work. Other authors declare no competing interests. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors alone and do not represent the policies or views of the affiliated institutions. Show more