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The proportion of attenders at accident and emergency (A&E) departments who present 'inappropriately' with conditions which could be managed in general practice has been estimated at between 6.7 per cent and 64-89 per cent. These estimates have been based on subjective assessments by clinicians, or on an objective classification developed by the Nuffield Provincial Hospitals Trust (NPHT). This study sought to validate this classification, and to develop and validate other objective systems of classifying A&E attenders. Two novel methods were devised, one based on the ICD-9 diagnosis and one primarily on processes of care. All three techniques were validated against the pooled opinions of a sample of general practitioners (GPs). The existing NPHT classification was found to be very unreliable. The new diagnostic method was more specific but had poor sensitivity, whereas the technique based on processes of care agreed remarkably well with the sample of GPs. This method was applied retrospectively to random samples of 8877 adult self-referrals to 16 English A&E departments, and yielded an estimate that 23 per cent could have been treated in general practice. This approach provides a simple and valid retrospective method for identifying patients who were suitable for care in general practice. The method may be used to identify groups of patients who frequently attend inappropriately, to identify areas in which primary care needs are not being effectively met in general practice, and to form a basis for planning and auditing strategies to meet those needs in a more appropriate setting.
This paper seeks to explain variations in acute inpatient length of stay in the National Health Service in England. A model is proposed in which the length of stay is allowed to vary according to patient characteristics, the local supply of NHS care. the local pressure on NHS resources, other non-NHS health care supply factors, and local policy effects. Length of stay data are obtained from the 1991/1992 Hospital Episode Statistics. They are standardized for age, sex and broad specialty group, and are aggregated to the level of small areas with populations of about 10,000. Explanatory variables include socio-economic data from the 1991 Census of Population, health status data, waiting time data, measures of access to inpatient and GP services, and measures of local private health care provision. The paper finds that variability in length of stay is greatest in the over-65 age group. The most important determinants of variations in length of stay are access to NHS hospitals, access to private hospitals, waiting times for elective surgery, indicators of poverty, and indicators of the availability of informal care.
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